2000 · Week 6

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Brock Huard

3·26

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+5.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.057
  • 40.0%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.120
  • 6.6%Explosive rate6.7%
  • 40.9%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 52.9%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.31
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.074EPA / play allowed-0.020

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
SEAQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:11630Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:26515Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:25670Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 4:5030Punt0–7
CARQ1 3:041370Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 11:3638Punt0–14
CARQ2 10:02853Turnover0–14
SEAQ2 5:24311Punt0–14
CARQ2 4:02413Field goal0–17
SEAQ2 2:0537Punt0–17
CARQ2 1:21849Field goal0–20
CARQ3 15:0032Punt0–20
SEAQ3 13:57748Turnover on downs0–20
CARQ3 10:531246Field goal0–23
SEAQ3 4:05848Field goal3–23
CARQ3 0:541147Field goal3–26
SEAQ4 8:0433Punt3–26
CARQ4 5:56568Missed field goal3–26
SEAQ4 2:161257Turnover on downs3–26
CARQ4 0:3500End of half3–26

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Huard19/3417200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters10636.30
Shaun Alexander100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean Dawkins511610
Darrell Jackson610450
James Williams25310
Christian Fauria34240
Itula Mili12120
Ricky Watters11-40

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein27/3933221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka231034.50
Steve Beuerlein133.00
Jeff Lewis1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wesley Walls781020
Donald Hayes58931
Isaac Byrd68490
Tim Biakabutuka45380
Kris Mangum12180
Muhsin Muhammad1280
Karl Hankton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.82
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.60