Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.057
- 40.0%Success rate40.9%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.120
- 6.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- 40.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
- 1.33Points / drive1.31
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Huard | 19/34 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 5 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 6 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| James Williams | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 27/39 | 332 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 23 | 103 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Lewis | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Walls | 7 | 8 | 102 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 5 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.82
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.60