2000 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
39
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.102
- 39.8%Success rate44.7%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate46.0%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.46Points / drive2.14
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. MIN are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 12 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 14:45 | 1 | 27 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 14:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 13:28 | 9 | 51 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 8:29 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 4:01 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 12:14 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 12:03 | 3 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| TB | Q2 11:11 | 19 | 86 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q2 1:06 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| TB | Q2 0:43 | 4 | 14 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q2 0:07 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| TB | Q3 11:12 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| MIN | Q3 8:11 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–20 |
| TB | Q3 6:01 | 9 | 40 | Field goal | 16–20 |
| MIN | Q3 0:44 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 16–20 |
| MIN | Q4 13:47 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 23–20 |
| TB | Q4 12:13 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 23–20 |
| MIN | Q4 12:13 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 23–27 |
| TB | Q4 8:42 | 7 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 23–27 |
| MIN | Q4 5:05 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 23–30 |
| TB | Q4 0:59 | 7 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 23–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 26/40 | 295 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 11 | 14 | 131 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 15/19 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 7 | 118 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| John Davis | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64