2000 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 49°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.003
- 41.1%Success rate40.3%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.30Points / drive1.62
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 25/36 | 289 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 23 | 84 | 3.7 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/34 | 186 | 2 | 2 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Torrance Small | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Darnell Autry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.42