2000 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

17·14

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 49°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.003
  • 41.1%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.62
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:26569Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 10:46411Punt7–0
WASQ1 9:02631Punt7–0
PHIQ1 5:3831Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:07424Punt7–0
WASQ1 2:36414—7–0
WASQ200Missed field goal7–0
WASQ2 15:001051Missed field goal7–0
PHIQ2 9:45645Turnover7–0
WASQ2 7:23749Punt7–0
PHIQ2 2:30782Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 1:29414Punt7–7
PHIQ2 0:3329Turnover7–7
WASQ2 0:061-1End of half7–7
WASQ3 15:003-1Punt7–7
PHIQ3 13:05611Punt7–7
WASQ3 11:03758Missed field goal7–7
PHIQ3 7:071283Touchdown7–14
WASQ4 14:57755Turnover7–14
WASQ4 10:48215Touchdown14–14
PHIQ4 10:1530Punt14–14
WASQ4 9:42524Punt14–14
PHIQ4 6:01621Punt14–14
WASQ4 2:42816Punt14–14
PHIQ4 0:402-3Turnover14–14
WASQ4 0:23113Field goal17–14
PHIQ4 0:0200End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson25/3628901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis23843.71
James Thrash24120.50
Adrian Murrell2147.00
Skip Hicks133.01
Brad Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Connell68830
Stephen Alexander35480
James Thrash56450
Stephen Davis34370
Mike Sellers11120
Irving Fryar1290
Andre Reed1290
Adrian Murrell0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb17/3418622
Brian Mitchell1/12100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb5499.80
Darnell Autry7152.10
Cecil Martin2105.00
Brian Mitchell382.70
Stanley Pritchett133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Lewis57770
Charles Johnson47521
Torrance Small24440
Cecil Martin34170
Luther Broughton13100
Na Brown1281
Darnell Autry1140
Stanley Pritchett0100
Todd Pinkston0100
Brian Mitchell15-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

6.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.42