Closing spread
STL -18
Total
58.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 18/30 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Maurice Smith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.44
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.