Closing spread
STL -18
Total
58.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LA | Q1 14:44 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q1 14:24 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:08 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:42 | 13 | 96 | Touchdown | 14–15 |
| ATL | Q2 14:55 | 8 | 36 | Turnover | 14–15 |
| LA | Q2 9:45 | 12 | 92 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q2 3:16 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LA | Q2 1:56 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–29 |
| ATL | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–29 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 21–29 |
| ATL | Q3 12:41 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 21–29 |
| LA | Q3 10:32 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 21–37 |
| ATL | Q3 6:57 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 21–37 |
| LA | Q3 5:03 | 7 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 21–37 |
| ATL | Q3 3:23 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 21–37 |
| LA | Q3 0:38 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 21–37 |
| ATL | Q4 10:39 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 21–37 |
| LA | Q4 8:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–37 |
| ATL | Q4 6:10 | 11 | 28 | Touchdown | 29–37 |
| LA | Q4 4:27 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 29–45 |
| ATL | Q4 1:09 | 3 | 40 | End of half | 29–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 18/30 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Maurice Smith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.44
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.