Closing spread
PK
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.008
- 40.9%Success rate42.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.104
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- 39.7%Third-down rate42.9%
- 37.3%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.53
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 14:40 | 2 | -11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 14:15 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:38 | 6 | 64 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:28 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:38 | 6 | 17 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 3:56 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:06 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:13 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 12:10 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:47 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 9:17 | 5 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 8:16 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 6:51 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:18 | 11 | 83 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 24 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q3 13:13 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NO | Q3 9:47 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q3 5:03 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NO | Q3 2:46 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q4 13:58 | 10 | 34 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NO | Q4 9:50 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| CAR | Q4 5:16 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 6–17 |
| NO | Q4 4:10 | 3 | 31 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| CAR | Q4 3:10 | 4 | -12 | Turnover on downs | 6–24 |
| NO | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 6–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 15/28 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Lewis | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 10 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 5 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 11/23 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1/1 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 38 | 144 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.20