2000 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

0·15

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kent Graham

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 61°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -8.5

Total

37

Model margin

+2.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.157EPA / play-0.044
  • 34.1%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.180EPA / dropback-0.014
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 34.6%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.37
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.119

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00279Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 13:53927Punt0–7
PITQ1 8:181145Punt0–7
CINQ1 2:4731Punt0–7
PITQ1 1:4636Punt0–7
CINQ1 0:10768Turnover on downs0–7
PITQ2 12:3435Punt0–7
CINQ2 11:3537Punt0–7
PITQ2 9:3335Punt0–7
CINQ2 8:3236Punt0–7
PITQ2 6:5936Punt0–7
CINQ2 5:36837Punt0–7
PITQ2 1:41414Punt0–7
CINQ2 0:531-5Turnover0–7
PITQ2 0:46326Field goal0–10
CINQ2 0:0400End of half0–10
CINQ3 15:00418Punt0–10
PITQ3 13:1333Punt0–10
CINQ3 12:18714Punt0–10
PITQ3 9:1661Punt0–10
CINQ3 7:4037Punt0–10
PITQ3 5:3933Punt0–10
CINQ3 4:2810Turnover0–10
PITQ3 4:15513Field goal0–13
CINQ3 2:1939Punt0–13
PITQ3 0:421033Punt0–13
CINQ4 10:02512Punt0–13
PITQ4 8:2232Punt0–13
CINQ4 6:453-4Safety0–15
PITQ4 6:32834Punt0–15
CINQ4 1:52835Turnover0–15
PITQ4 0:391-1End of half0–15

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Akili Smith10/209700
Scott Mitchell4/163902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peter Warrick24824.00
Corey Dillon15362.40
Akili Smith3248.00
Curtis Keaton3124.00
Brandon Bennett252.50
Neil Rackers1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ron Dugans26290
Tony McGee33230
Craig Yeast16220
Peter Warrick414210
Damon Griffin12160
Marco Battaglia12140
Corey Dillon1190
Steve Bush0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham13/3317310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis291013.50
Kent Graham242.00
Richard Huntley1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward23911
Bobby Shaw36360
Plaxico Burress410330
Troy Edwards1570
Mark Bruener1150
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala2510
Malcolm Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.16