Closing spread
PIT -8.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play-0.044
- 34.1%Success rate38.6%
- -0.180EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- 34.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 0.82Points / drive1.37
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 10/20 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 4/16 | 39 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 48 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Neil Rackers | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 14 | 21 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 13/33 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 29 | 101 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 2 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.16