2000 · Week 7

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

10·44

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Mile High Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -12.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.217EPA / play+0.086
  • 31.8%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.234EPA / rush-0.025
  • 5.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • 28.6%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.79
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.030

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13CLE @ DEN32–41DEN
2023 · W12CLE @ DEN12–29DEN
2021 · W7DEN @ CLE14–17CLE
2019 · W9CLE @ DEN19–24DEN
2018 · W15CLE @ DEN17–16CLE
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2012 · W16CLE @ DEN12–34DEN
2009 · W2CLE @ DEN6–27DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DEN
DENQ1 15:00564Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 13:21421Punt0–3
DENQ1 11:12841Punt0–3
CLEQ1 7:023-7Punt0–3
DENQ1 5:22414Punt0–3
CLEQ1 3:50657Field goal3–3
DENQ1 1:18852Missed field goal3–3
CLEQ2 13:1931Punt3–3
DENQ2 12:14782Touchdown3–10
CLEQ2 8:4733Punt3–10
DENQ2 6:57758Touchdown3–17
CLEQ2 4:29832Turnover3–17
DENQ2 1:45853Field goal3–20
CLEQ2 0:111-1End of half3–20
CLEQ3 15:00880Touchdown10–20
DENQ3 10:54333Touchdown10–27
CLEQ3 9:1538Punt10–27
DENQ3 7:07541Touchdown10–34
CLEQ3 4:48619Punt10–34
DENQ3 1:47522Punt10–34
CLEQ4 14:0737Opp touchdown10–41
DENQ4 13:2200Opp touchdown10–41
CLEQ4 13:22725Turnover10–41
DENQ4 10:2232Field goal10–44
CLEQ4 8:55422Punt10–44
DENQ4 6:51519Punt10–44
CLEQ4 3:55311Punt10–44
DENQ4 3:01518End of half10–44

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch24/4026613
Spergon Wynn2/52100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Prentice6274.50
Spergon Wynn2126.00
Tim Couch1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt59800
Aaron Shea66760
Kevin Johnson812600
David Patten48540
Travis Prentice34171
Darrin Chiaverini0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese19/3433630
Gus Frerotte3/61700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson201035.21
Raymont Harris8222.80
Brian Griese11414.00
Rod Smith188.00
Gus Frerotte1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed McCaffrey5111290
Rod Smith5101113
Desmond Clark45460
Mike Anderson22280
Byron Chamberlain1490
Billy Miller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.89