Closing spread
DEN -12.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.217EPA / play+0.086
- 31.8%Success rate45.4%
- -0.208EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.234EPA / rush-0.025
- 5.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- 28.6%Third-down rate44.1%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 0.78Points / drive1.79
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 24/40 | 266 | 1 | 3 |
| Spergon Wynn | 2/5 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Spergon Wynn | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 5 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 6 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 8 | 12 | 60 | 0 |
| David Patten | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/34 | 336 | 3 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3/6 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Raymont Harris | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 11 | 129 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 10 | 111 | 3 |
| Desmond Clark | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.89