2000 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

14·19

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYG -4

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.016
  • 41.5%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.085EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 36.8%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.73
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 14:42833Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:391149Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 5:17724Punt0–0
DALQ1 1:021344Turnover0–0
NYGQ2 10:38439Punt0–0
DALQ2 9:1134Turnover0–0
NYGQ2 8:22521Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 6:4232Punt0–7
NYGQ2 4:4633Punt0–7
DALQ2 3:361022Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 0:3919End of half0–7
NYGQ3 15:00873Field goal0–10
DALQ3 11:0932Touchdown7–10
NYGQ3 10:02747Field goal7–13
DALQ3 6:13861Touchdown14–13
NYGQ3 1:1945Punt14–13
DALQ4 14:46315Turnover14–13
NYGQ4 13:16731Touchdown14–19
DALQ4 10:0038Punt14–19
NYGQ4 7:44422Punt14–19
DALQ4 5:24516Punt14–19
NYGQ4 4:1134Punt14–19
DALQ4 2:561546End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman22/4221115

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith19613.21
Troy Aikman273.50
Chris Warren540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Warren66620
Damon Hodge37520
Jason Tucker23260
David LaFleur11190
Raghib Ismail26140
Emmitt Smith22100
Jackie Harris1240
Wane McGarity0300
James McKnight0400

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins14/2511910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne211085.11
Tiki Barber9738.10
Kerry Collins3227.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard34420
Joe Jurevicius45250
Greg Comella23190
Amani Toomer25170
Tiki Barber26150
Pete Mitchell1111
Ron Dixon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.18