Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.016
- 41.5%Success rate40.1%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- 36.8%Third-down rate39.9%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.35Points / drive1.73
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 22/42 | 211 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warren | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Damon Hodge | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/25 | 119 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 108 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.18