Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
44
Model margin
+0.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.144
- 44.7%Success rate38.4%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.156
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.1%
- 46.0%Third-down rate29.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 2.14Points / drive0.80
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:52 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:26 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 6:59 | 7 | 45 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 3:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q1 2:43 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q2 13:44 | 9 | 76 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| MIN | Q2 8:58 | 1 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| CHI | Q2 8:35 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–9 |
| MIN | Q2 7:21 | 4 | 43 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| CHI | Q2 5:26 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 14–9 |
| MIN | Q2 2:35 | 8 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 14–9 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 14–9 |
| MIN | Q3 12:00 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 21–9 |
| CHI | Q3 10:01 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 21–9 |
| MIN | Q3 7:46 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 21–9 |
| CHI | Q3 4:11 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| MIN | Q4 14:56 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 28–16 |
| CHI | Q4 9:26 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 28–16 |
| CHI | Q4 7:41 | 7 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 28–16 |
| MIN | Q4 4:50 | 11 | 70 | End of half | 28–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 15/26 | 198 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 23 | 170 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 10 | 111 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| John Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 19/33 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 7 | 15 | 88 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| James Allen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Scott Dragos | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.82