2000 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

34·17

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

37

Model margin

+2.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.079
  • 39.6%Success rate38.3%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.195
  • 7.5%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 37.5%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.30
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.101EPA / play allowed+0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:00311Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 13:25938Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 8:2920Opp touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 7:3400Opp touchdown14–0
NEQ1 7:341046Field goal14–3
NYJQ1 3:3137Punt14–3
NEQ1 2:3438Punt14–3
NYJQ1 0:4329Turnover14–3
NEQ2 14:5332Punt14–3
NYJQ2 14:0038Punt14–3
NEQ2 12:20456Touchdown14–10
NYJQ2 10:441665Touchdown21–10
NEQ2 2:11611Turnover21–10
NYJQ2 1:10323Field goal24–10
NEQ2 0:0500End of half24–10
NYJQ3 15:00524Punt24–10
NEQ3 11:014-1Punt24–10
NYJQ3 8:53940Touchdown31–10
NEQ3 4:13514Punt31–10
NYJQ3 2:2648Punt31–10
NEQ3 0:39711Turnover31–10
NYJQ4 13:33426Missed field goal31–10
NEQ4 11:22650Touchdown31–17
NYJQ4 9:38526Punt31–17
NEQ4 5:3735Turnover31–17
NYJQ4 4:5633Field goal34–17
NEQ4 3:5630Punt34–17
NYJQ4 3:22419Punt34–17
NEQ4 2:07636Turnover34–17
NYJQ4 1:002-2End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde15/2313900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin341434.23
Wayne Chrebet252.50
Vinny Testaverde331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles67530
Wayne Chrebet23220
Curtis Martin23180
Dedric Ward12120
Jermaine Wiggins0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe16/3520803
Michael Bishop2/63601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk9262.91
Drew Bledsoe2168.01
Tony Carter273.50
J.R. Redmond122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Simmons34760
Troy Brown58730
Terry Glenn27450
Kevin Faulk59270
Eric Bjornson26170
Tony Carter1160
Chris Calloway0200
Rod Rutledge0100
J.R. Redmond0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.17