Closing spread
NE -3
Total
37
Model margin
+2.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.079
- 39.6%Success rate38.3%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- 37.5%Third-down rate35.1%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.29Points / drive1.30
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.101EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/23 | 139 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 34 | 143 | 4.2 | 3 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 16/35 | 208 | 0 | 3 |
| Michael Bishop | 2/6 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Simmons | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 2 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17