Closing spread
KC -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:14 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:09 | 7 | 44 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:32 | 6 | 42 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 13:04 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 6:38 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 4:47 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 2:49 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 1:04 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 20 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 28 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| KC | Q3 10:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 8:37 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 10–17 |
| KC | Q3 6:53 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 2:33 | 16 | 95 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| KC | Q4 9:25 | 5 | 62 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| LV | Q4 7:09 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–17 |
| KC | Q4 4:23 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LV | Q4 2:40 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| KC | Q4 0:25 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 0:03 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 23/40 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Moreau | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 12 | 78 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 4 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.