Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
-2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.126
- 40.3%Success rate39.0%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.243
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.7%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.62Points / drive1.04
- 2.5%Turnover rate4.0%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/34 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Autry | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| David Akers | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 7 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Torrance Small | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/30 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | -17 | -17.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 12 | 123 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.69