2000 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

33·14

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

-2.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • -0.003EPA / play-0.126
  • 40.3%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.243
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 41.3%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.04
  • 2.5%Turnover rate4.0%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.104

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00834Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 10:321170Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 5:2938Punt7–0
PHIQ1 3:471454Field goal10–0
ARIQ2 11:32520Punt10–0
PHIQ2 8:121878Touchdown17–0
ARIQ2 0:25333End of half17–0
PHIQ3 15:001058Touchdown24–0
ARIQ3 9:16213Turnover24–0
PHIQ3 8:28521Punt24–0
ARIQ3 5:48375Touchdown24–7
PHIQ3 4:33712Punt24–7
ARIQ3 1:231383Touchdown24–14
PHIQ4 10:47522Punt24–14
ARIQ4 7:5930Punt24–14
PHIQ4 7:29571Touchdown30–14
ARIQ4 5:2848Turnover on downs30–14
PHIQ4 4:0638Field goal33–14
ARIQ4 2:44331Turnover33–14
PHIQ4 1:443-3End of half33–14

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/3422610
Brian Mitchell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darnell Autry20643.21
Donovan McNabb7355.01
Stanley Pritchett6294.81
Brian Mitchell3165.30
David Akers11515.00
Cecil Martin11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Johnson46680
Chad Lewis78621
Torrance Small58440
Darnell Autry33280
Stanley Pritchett12110
Na Brown1180
Cecil Martin3450
Donovan McNabb0100
Todd Pinkston0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer18/3021322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Plummer24321.50
Michael Pittman8374.60
Thomas Jones33511.70
David Boston1-17-17.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston6121231
Michael Pittman47271
Mac Cody12180
Chris Gedney22130
Frank Sanders11130
MarTay Jenkins1270
Terry Hardy1150
Thomas Jones1130
Tywan Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.69