Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.010
- 42.2%Success rate40.2%
- +0.195EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 41.2%Third-down rate38.8%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.90Points / drive1.67
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.092EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:02 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:10 | 12 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 3:44 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 2:17 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:51 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:15 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 10:03 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 6:48 | 5 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 5:27 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 0:51 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SF | Q3 8:51 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| GB | Q3 2:10 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 14–21 |
| SF | Q4 13:57 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| GB | Q4 11:36 | 8 | 42 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| SF | Q4 8:01 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| GB | Q4 5:30 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 28–31 |
| SF | Q4 0:54 | 5 | 51 | End of half | 28–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 27/42 | 336 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 14 | 84 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 8 | 8 | 93 | 2 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 6 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/27 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 9 | 116 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10