Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play-0.003
- 38.4%Success rate40.3%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.138
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 29.8%Third-down rate41.3%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 0.80Points / drive1.62
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. PHI are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 14/34 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 6/9 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 4 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Dustin Lyman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/35 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Autry | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Autry | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 6 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Amp Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.90