2000 · Week 8

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Cade McNown

9·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 59°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapEagles
  • -0.144EPA / play-0.003
  • 38.4%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.138
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 35.6%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 0.80Points / drive1.62
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. PHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PHI
CHIQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:28412Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:00610Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:33413Punt0–0
CHIQ1 5:0036Punt0–0
PHIQ1 3:30730Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 0:03429Punt0–3
PHIQ2 12:30543Punt0–3
CHIQ2 10:1134Punt0–3
PHIQ2 8:20821Turnover0–3
CHIQ2 4:3938Punt0–3
PHIQ2 3:20977Touchdown0–10
CHIQ2 0:46617End of half0–10
PHIQ3 15:0036Punt0–10
CHIQ3 13:13317Turnover0–10
PHIQ3 11:491148Field goal0–13
CHIQ3 6:35518Punt0–13
PHIQ3 4:3238Punt0–13
CHIQ3 3:031251Field goal3–13
PHIQ4 12:36622Punt3–13
CHIQ4 9:291075Field goal6–13
PHIQ4 4:3910Turnover6–13
CHIQ4 4:2630Field goal9–13
PHIQ4 4:10618Punt9–13
CHIQ4 1:04928End of half9–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller14/3412801
Cade McNown6/94900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen21874.10
Eddie Kennison12323.00
Cade McNown122.00
Jim Miller221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison58620
Marcus Robinson412550
Macey Brooks57290
Marty Booker36130
James Allen2290
Kaseem Sinceno1490
Dustin Lyman0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb22/3520711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darnell Autry14372.60
Donovan McNabb5255.00
Stanley Pritchett4215.30
Koy Detmer188.00
Cecil Martin144.00
Brian Mitchell221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Autry56700
Charles Johnson610570
Cecil Martin34270
Torrance Small23250
Chad Lewis25120
Jeff Thomason22101
Brian Mitchell1130
Stanley Pritchett1130
Na Brown0200
Amp Lee0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.90