2000 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Doug Pederson

0·22

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kent Graham

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 75°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -9

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.217EPA / play-0.044
  • 31.8%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback-0.014
  • -0.234EPA / rush-0.076
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 28.6%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.37
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.119

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0066Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:5937Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:0930Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:08511Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:3339Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:20410Turnover0–0
PITQ1 3:1639Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 1:50524Punt0–3
PITQ2 14:42837Punt0–3
CLEQ2 12:3435Punt0–3
PITQ2 11:0777Touchdown0–10
CLEQ2 7:4124Turnover0–10
PITQ2 6:46938Field goal0–13
CLEQ2 1:54615Punt0–13
PITQ2 0:191-1End of half0–13
CLEQ3 15:00416Punt0–13
PITQ3 12:4838Punt0–13
CLEQ3 11:4534Turnover0–13
PITQ3 10:54520Field goal0–16
CLEQ3 7:433-1Punt0–16
PITQ3 5:291555Field goal0–19
CLEQ4 12:0037Missed field goal0–19
PITQ4 10:131462Field goal0–22
CLEQ4 1:3432Punt0–22
PITQ4 0:472-2End of half0–22

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson9/206103
Spergon Wynn1/3200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Prentice14483.40
Doug Pederson242.00
Jamel White200.00
Dennis Northcutt1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt28220
Aaron Shea12210
Travis Prentice3380
Lenzie Jackson1350
Kevin Johnson2550
Mark Campbell1120

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart7/137400
Kent Graham3/124600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis331053.21
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala12020.00
Kordell Stewart6152.50
Richard Huntley451.30
Troy Edwards1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Shaw33600
Plaxico Burress27250
Courtney Hawkins13160
Troy Edwards24150
Hines Ward1450
Jerome Bettis0100
Mark Bruener0100
Richard Huntley12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.45