Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.217EPA / play-0.044
- 31.8%Success rate38.6%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.234EPA / rush-0.076
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- 28.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 0.78Points / drive1.37
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 9/20 | 61 | 0 | 3 |
| Spergon Wynn | 1/3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Lenzie Jackson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 7/13 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 3/12 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 33 | 105 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45