Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
43
Model margin
-1.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.157
- 45.4%Success rate34.1%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.129
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 44.1%Third-down rate34.8%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 1.79Points / drive0.82
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.030EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:13 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:34 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 2:53 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 12:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 11:27 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 11:10 | 11 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q2 5:40 | 1 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q2 5:13 | 8 | 48 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:56 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q3 11:59 | 3 | 25 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q3 10:21 | 4 | 53 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| DEN | Q3 8:53 | 10 | 35 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q3 3:56 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 14–17 |
| DEN | Q3 0:48 | 7 | 29 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q4 13:03 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 14–17 |
| DEN | Q4 11:43 | 13 | 57 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q4 5:43 | 2 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| DEN | Q4 4:58 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| CIN | Q4 3:43 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| DEN | Q4 1:49 | 8 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 21–31 |
| CIN | Q4 0:26 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 30/45 | 365 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 1 |
| KaRon Coleman | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 10 | 12 | 136 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 12 | 110 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 6 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Detron Smith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| KaRon Coleman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 2/9 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 0/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 278 | 12.6 | 2 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 90 | 30.0 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Akili Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony McGee | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.60