2000 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play-0.016
- 36.6%Success rate39.8%
- -0.141EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.086
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- 31.8%Third-down rate33.9%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.23Points / drive1.46
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.114
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 13/31 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 29 | 116 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Mario Bates | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 17/34 | 149 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.86