2000 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

28·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -8

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.143EPA / play-0.016
  • 36.6%Success rate39.8%
  • -0.141EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.086
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 31.8%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 47.8%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.46
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.114

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–TB
TBQ1 15:001160Field goal0–3
DETQ1 8:2936Punt0–3
TBQ1 7:14442Field goal0–6
DETQ1 5:0035Punt0–6
TBQ1 3:4635Punt0–6
DETQ1 2:111031Safety0–8
TBQ2 11:4713Turnover0–8
DETQ2 11:27813Field goal3–8
TBQ2 7:45419Field goal3–11
DETQ2 5:241275Touchdown11–11
TBQ2 0:381-1End of half11–11
DETQ3 15:0032Punt11–11
TBQ3 13:4024Turnover11–11
DETQ3 12:523-9Field goal14–11
TBQ3 11:2948Punt14–11
DETQ3 9:503-16Punt14–11
TBQ3 8:3233Punt14–11
DETQ3 7:241258Missed field goal14–11
TBQ3 0:2111—14–11
TBQ400Field goal14–11
TBQ4 15:00424Field goal14–14
DETQ4 13:10611Punt14–14
TBQ4 10:1239Turnover14–14
DETQ4 8:36964Touchdown21–14
TBQ4 4:28522Turnover on downs21–14
DETQ4 3:12438Touchdown28–14
TBQ4 1:53759Turnover28–14
DETQ4 0:451-1End of half28–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch13/3114400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart291164.03
Mario Bates3248.00
Charlie Batch3165.30
Larry Foster11515.00
Johnnie Morton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton56840
Mario Bates11110
Herman Moore1590
Walter Rasby1290
David Sloan1680
James Stewart2680
Brian Stablein1170
Larry Foster0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King17/3414903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn8465.80
Shaun King5336.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson612790
Jacquez Green38270
Warrick Dunn34190
Dave Moore34180
Reidel Anthony0200
Patrick Hape0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.86