Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
35
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.073
- 38.4%Success rate39.6%
- +0.081EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.161
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 34.3%Third-down rate37.5%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.52Points / drive1.29
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.111EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/35 | 250 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 23 | 155 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 7 | 14 | 119 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 6 | 94 | 2 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 36/59 | 378 | 5 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 6 | 13 | 104 | 2 |
| Curtis Martin | 8 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.36