2000 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

37·40

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

35

Model margin

+1.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.073
  • 38.4%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.161
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 34.3%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.29
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.111EPA / play allowed-0.101

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
MIAQ1 15:001368Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 7:223-2Punt3–0
MIAQ1 5:54269Touchdown10–0
NYJQ1 5:0339Punt16–0
MIAQ1 3:22168Touchdown17–0
NYJQ1 3:0932Punt17–0
MIAQ1 2:0232Punt17–0
NYJQ1 1:043-2Turnover17–0
MIAQ2 14:54417Field goal20–0
NYJQ2 12:5739Punt20–0
MIAQ2 11:07633Missed field goal20–0
NYJQ2 7:41845Punt20–0
MIAQ2 4:1530Punt20–0
NYJQ2 2:1410Turnover20–0
MIAQ2 2:0738Punt20–0
NYJQ2 1:44638Touchdown20–7
MIAQ2 0:53434Field goal23–7
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half23–7
NYJQ3 15:0036Punt23–7
MIAQ3 13:2644Punt23–7
NYJQ3 12:05726Turnover23–7
MIAQ3 9:09725Turnover23–7
NYJQ3 5:57623Turnover on downs23–7
MIAQ3 3:16535Touchdown30–7
NYJQ3 0:12665Touchdown30–13
MIAQ4 13:4936Punt30–13
NYJQ4 12:02953Touchdown30–20
MIAQ4 9:5135Punt30–20
NYJQ4 7:35949Field goal30–23
MIAQ4 5:434-13Punt30–23
NYJQ4 4:28339Touchdown30–30
MIAQ4 3:55146Touchdown37–30
NYJQ4 3:331052Touchdown37–37
MIAQ4 0:423-2Punt37–37
MIAOT35Turnover37–37
MIAOT523Turnover37–37
NYJOT643Field goal37–40

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler16/3525023

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith231556.72
Jay Fiedler4246.00
J.J. Johnson263.00
Thurman Thomas420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden7141190
Leslie Shepherd36942
Hunter Goodwin23130
Lamar Smith2290
Thurman Thomas1480
Bert Emanuel0200
O.J. McDuffie0100
Jed Weaver0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde36/5937853

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin14654.60
Vinny Testaverde177.00
Dwight Stone144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wayne Chrebet6131042
Curtis Martin811720
Laveranues Coles49551
Dedric Ward38400
Jermaine Wiggins1111
Fred Baxter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.36