Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.123
- 38.3%Success rate45.8%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.249
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.069
- 5.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 35.1%Third-down rate46.8%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.30Points / drive2.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed+0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 | 18 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:17 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 2:38 | 14 | 76 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 10:26 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 7:27 | 16 | 51 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| IND | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–7 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 56 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| NE | Q3 12:22 | 9 | 73 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| IND | Q3 6:51 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| NE | Q3 6:33 | 9 | 40 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| IND | Q3 2:27 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 23–14 |
| NE | Q4 13:28 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 23–14 |
| IND | Q4 9:48 | 11 | 42 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| NE | Q4 6:16 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 23–21 |
| IND | Q4 4:31 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 23–27 |
| NE | Q4 2:09 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 23–27 |
| IND | Q4 1:47 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 23–30 |
| NE | Q4 0:18 | 2 | 27 | Turnover | 23–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 23/34 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Redmond | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Michael Bishop | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Shockmain Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/20 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 124 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 7 | 156 | 2 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85