Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.193
- 42.1%Success rate37.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.225
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- 42.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.53Points / drive1.06
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 11:20 | 13 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q1 4:20 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NO | Q1 2:00 | 8 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 13:35 | 8 | 51 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 8:19 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 6:53 | 3 | -6 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| NO | Q2 5:32 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–6 |
| ATL | Q2 3:10 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NO | Q2 1:22 | 9 | 65 | End of half | 7–13 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 7–13 |
| ATL | Q3 11:27 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NO | Q3 7:04 | 3 | 37 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| ATL | Q3 5:45 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 14–13 |
| NO | Q3 3:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–13 |
| ATL | Q3 1:51 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 14–13 |
| NO | Q4 12:34 | 15 | 92 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| ATL | Q4 4:10 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 21–19 |
| NO | Q4 2:58 | 6 | 23 | End of half | 21–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 19/31 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 29 | 156 | 5.4 | 3 |
| Jeff Blake | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 15/20 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 4 | 85 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62