Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.193
- 42.1%Success rate37.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.225
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- 42.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.53Points / drive1.06
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 19/31 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 29 | 156 | 5.4 | 3 |
| Jeff Blake | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 15/20 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 4 | 85 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62