Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
50
Model margin
+1.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.057
- 42.2%Success rate40.9%
- +0.195EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.120
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.7%
- 41.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
- 1.90Points / drive1.31
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.092EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 18 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:27 | 7 | 64 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 3:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 2:18 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:52 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| SF | Q2 8:51 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 6–21 |
| CAR | Q2 8:32 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 6–21 |
| SF | Q2 8:32 | 6 | 91 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| SF | Q2 5:41 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| CAR | Q2 5:41 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| SF | Q2 1:04 | 5 | 37 | End of half | 13–24 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 13–24 |
| CAR | Q3 13:34 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| SF | Q3 12:16 | 14 | 58 | Field goal | 16–31 |
| CAR | Q3 5:19 | 8 | 8 | Punt | 16–31 |
| SF | Q3 2:13 | 9 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 16–31 |
| CAR | Q4 12:53 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 16–34 |
| SF | Q4 8:31 | 12 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 16–34 |
| CAR | Q4 5:08 | 10 | 63 | End of half | 16–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 25/39 | 307 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 10 | 87 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 7 | 8 | 112 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 28/44 | 309 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 9 | 13 | 127 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 6 | 11 | 90 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 6 | 7 | 42 | 2 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.80