Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.193
- 40.9%Success rate37.5%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.225
- 6.7%Explosive rate6.1%
- 39.7%Third-down rate29.3%
- 37.3%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.06
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:02 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q1 0:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| ATL | Q2 14:51 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 13:22 | 7 | 14 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| ATL | Q2 9:43 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q2 6:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–3 |
| ATL | Q2 4:54 | 8 | 40 | Missed field goal | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q2 1:03 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| ATL | Q2 0:35 | 1 | 16 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q2 0:26 | 4 | 1 | End of half | 6–3 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q3 11:12 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–3 |
| ATL | Q3 10:08 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q3 9:21 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| ATL | Q3 3:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–3 |
| CAR | Q3 1:53 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 12–3 |
| ATL | Q4 12:40 | 13 | 79 | Touchdown | 12–10 |
| CAR | Q4 5:04 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 12–10 |
| ATL | Q4 4:44 | 3 | -6 | Field goal | 12–13 |
| CAR | Q4 2:53 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 12–13 |
| ATL | Q4 2:01 | 4 | 7 | Missed field goal | 12–13 |
| CAR | Q4 0:50 | 6 | 8 | Turnover | 12–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 21/41 | 202 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 14 | 23 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 19/29 | 191 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 25 | 90 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 7 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 5 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.02