Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play-0.217
- 34.1%Success rate31.8%
- -0.180EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.234
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.5%
- 34.8%Third-down rate28.6%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 0.82Points / drive0.78
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 7/20 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 27 | 137 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spergon Wynn | 7/16 | 82 | 0 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 6/16 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 4 | 13 | 23 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.27