Closing spread
KC -4
Total
43
Model margin
+0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.051
- 41.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.123EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- 36.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate52.9%
- 1.42Points / drive1.33
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.025EPA / play allowed+0.074
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. SEA are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:54 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:10 | 7 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:21 | 5 | 9 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 2:23 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q1 0:53 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 14:53 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 11:25 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 8:30 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| SEA | Q2 5:54 | 3 | 27 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| KC | Q2 4:08 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| SEA | Q2 2:20 | 9 | 60 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:46 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 21–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 44 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| SEA | Q3 10:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–10 |
| KC | Q3 9:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–10 |
| SEA | Q3 7:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–10 |
| KC | Q3 6:34 | 5 | 33 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| SEA | Q3 4:28 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| KC | Q4 14:57 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 21–13 |
| SEA | Q4 12:09 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 21–13 |
| KC | Q4 8:59 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 21–13 |
| SEA | Q4 7:00 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 21–19 |
| KC | Q4 5:53 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 21–19 |
| SEA | Q4 3:04 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 21–19 |
| KC | Q4 1:48 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 24–19 |
| SEA | Q4 0:42 | 6 | 10 | End of half | 24–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 22/35 | 342 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 7 | 137 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 14 | 101 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Kimble Anders | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 26/42 | 224 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 7 | 13 | 64 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 5 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Derrick Mayes | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Karsten Bailey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.21