2000 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.016
- 44.7%Success rate39.8%
- +0.184EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.086
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- 46.0%Third-down rate33.9%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 2.14Points / drive1.46
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.114
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:20 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 10:33 | 7 | 71 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| TB | Q1 6:35 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q1 3:40 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| TB | Q2 11:57 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| MIN | Q2 9:46 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 10–28 |
| TB | Q2 7:58 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–28 |
| MIN | Q2 7:58 | 5 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 10–28 |
| TB | Q2 5:32 | 5 | 39 | Field goal | 10–31 |
| MIN | Q2 3:38 | 14 | 56 | Field goal | 13–31 |
| TB | Q2 0:20 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–31 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 91 | Field goal | 13–34 |
| MIN | Q3 6:25 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 13–34 |
| TB | Q3 1:37 | 10 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 13–34 |
| MIN | Q4 11:52 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 13–34 |
| TB | Q4 9:39 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–41 |
| MIN | Q4 5:05 | 10 | 75 | Turnover on downs | 13–41 |
| TB | Q4 1:46 | 2 | 16 | End of half | 13–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 29/53 | 313 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 17 | 115 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 7 | 14 | 65 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 7 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 16/23 | 267 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 89 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eric Zeier | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 7 | 121 | 1 |
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.72