Closing spread
NO -6
Total
41
Model margin
-1.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.126
- 42.1%Success rate39.0%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.243
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- 42.9%Third-down rate36.7%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.53Points / drive1.04
- 2.1%Turnover rate4.0%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:44 | 11 | 56 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:00 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:31 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 0:12 | 5 | 39 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 12:44 | 13 | 87 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 5:23 | 10 | 42 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:25 | 8 | 43 | End of half | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NO | Q3 10:56 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q3 8:03 | 7 | 42 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 5:07 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 5:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 3:59 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 0:27 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 14–10 |
| NO | Q4 12:44 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–10 |
| NO | Q4 11:11 | 2 | 16 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| ARI | Q4 10:32 | 8 | 16 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| NO | Q4 7:08 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| ARI | Q4 5:04 | 10 | 48 | Missed field goal | 21–10 |
| NO | Q4 1:49 | 5 | 9 | End of half | 21–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 16/26 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 21 | 54 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 9 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Keith Poole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 26/47 | 289 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| David Boston | 5 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 7 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jay Tant | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.84