Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 39 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:37 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:30 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:56 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:14 | 7 | 8 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:27 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 12–0 |
| LAC | Q2 6:55 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 12–0 |
| LV | Q2 4:22 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 12–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:40 | 8 | 39 | End of half | 12–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 12–7 |
| LV | Q3 8:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 12–7 |
| LAC | Q3 6:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 12–7 |
| LV | Q3 5:25 | 5 | 17 | Missed field goal | 12–7 |
| LAC | Q3 3:08 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 12–7 |
| LV | Q3 0:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 12–7 |
| LAC | Q4 13:13 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 12–7 |
| LV | Q4 10:05 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 12–7 |
| LAC | Q4 9:20 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 12–13 |
| LV | Q4 5:58 | 12 | 63 | Field goal | 15–13 |
| LAC | Q4 0:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 15–13 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.