2000 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

7·24

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+2.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • -0.003EPA / play+0.016
  • 40.3%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.73
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00941Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 10:3037Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:06657Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 6:04536Punt0–7
NYGQ1 3:181024Punt0–7
PHIQ2 13:4934Punt0–7
NYGQ2 12:1936Punt0–7
PHIQ2 10:42423Punt0–7
NYGQ2 8:2436Punt0–7
PHIQ2 7:2130Punt0–7
NYGQ2 6:22944Punt0–7
PHIQ2 2:1330Punt0–7
NYGQ2 1:50332Touchdown0–14
PHIQ2 1:31537Missed field goal0–14
NYGQ2 0:021-1End of half0–14
PHIQ3 15:00614Punt0–14
NYGQ3 13:03625Punt0–14
PHIQ3 9:0837Punt0–14
NYGQ3 7:59623Punt0–14
PHIQ3 4:4930Punt0–14
NYGQ3 4:211153Field goal0–17
PHIQ4 13:0610Turnover0–17
NYGQ4 12:461154Touchdown0–24
PHIQ4 5:56351Touchdown7–24
NYGQ4 5:12822Turnover on downs7–24
PHIQ4 1:55413Turnover on downs7–24
NYGQ4 1:032-2End of half7–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb10/3112911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb34214.00
Stanley Pritchett6172.80
Charles Johnson11515.00
Brian Mitchell1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Lewis17260
Charles Johnson14251
Stanley Pritchett34250
Amp Lee11200
Na Brown13130
Brian Mitchell11120
Torrance Small1670
Cecil Martin1110
Darnell Autry0100
Luther Broughton0100
Jeff Thomason0100
Todd Pinkston0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins22/3725310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne25933.71
Tiki Barber14523.70
Joe Montgomery144.01
Kerry Collins430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer9151081
Tiki Barber45710
Ike Hilliard58390
Pete Mitchell22130
Ron Dayne11120
Greg Comella12100
Dan Campbell0100
Joe Jurevicius0100
Ron Dixon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.68