Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
33
Model margin
+4.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.056
- 38.6%Success rate40.2%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.7%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 1.37Points / drive1.45
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.119EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 68 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 7:36 | 9 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:06 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 14:14 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 11:20 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 6:11 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q2 1:52 | 9 | 10 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q3 12:16 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q3 10:41 | 2 | 59 | Touchdown | 6–6 |
| BAL | Q3 9:51 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| PIT | Q3 9:41 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| BAL | Q3 5:53 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 9–6 |
| PIT | Q3 3:24 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 9–6 |
| BAL | Q4 14:15 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 9–6 |
| PIT | Q4 10:37 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 9–6 |
| BAL | Q4 9:08 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 9–6 |
| PIT | Q4 7:40 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 9–6 |
| BAL | Q4 2:54 | 6 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 9–6 |
| PIT | Q4 1:41 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 9–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 9/18 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 2 | 4 | 55 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/25 | 152 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88