Closing spread
STL -7
Total
63
Model margin
+2.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 13:25 | 6 | 17 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 11:06 | 3 | 2 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 8:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:02 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:59 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:23 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SF | Q1 1:29 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 13:01 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SF | Q2 9:23 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:15 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| SF | Q2 2:54 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LA | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| SF | Q2 1:06 | 8 | 47 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:15 | 1 | 8 | End of half | 14–17 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| SF | Q3 12:50 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LA | Q3 8:10 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| SF | Q3 3:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LA | Q3 1:20 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 24–24 |
| SF | Q4 13:39 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 11:58 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| SF | Q4 10:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 31–24 |
| LA | Q4 8:36 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 34–24 |
| SF | Q4 3:45 | 8 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 34–24 |
| LA | Q4 2:13 | 6 | 17 | End of half | 34–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 26/44 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Paul Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 8 | 14 | 115 | 2 |
| Jerry Rice | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 6 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.