Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
32.5
Model margin
-2.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.157
- 40.2%Success rate34.1%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- 40.7%Third-down rate34.8%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 1.45Points / drive0.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 23/34 | 244 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 109 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 7 | 9 | 66 | 2 |
| Qadry Ismail | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 15/27 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 23 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony McGee | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.5%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.46