Closing spread
STL -13.5
Total
59.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:22 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:59 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:31 | 8 | 84 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 4:25 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:11 | 7 | 81 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q2 10:38 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:25 | 3 | -5 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q2 9:08 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| LA | Q2 5:55 | 9 | 55 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| CAR | Q2 1:10 | 4 | -9 | End of half | 13–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| LA | Q3 9:53 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| CAR | Q3 5:19 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 16–17 |
| LA | Q3 5:03 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| CAR | Q3 2:26 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 16–24 |
| LA | Q4 12:19 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 16–24 |
| CAR | Q4 10:53 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 10:43 | 9 | 54 | Punt | 24–24 |
| CAR | Q4 6:31 | 12 | 45 | Field goal | 27–24 |
| LA | Q4 0:40 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 15/25 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 3 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Casey Crawford | 1 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.