2000 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Randall Cunningham

13·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 52°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

40

Model margin

+4.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.003
  • 41.5%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.085EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 36.8%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.62
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:0049Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:24621Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 9:38415Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:32644Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:241596Turnover0–0
PHIQ2 11:5338Turnover0–0
DALQ2 10:581145Touchdown7–0
PHIQ2 4:42612Punt7–0
DALQ2 1:27618Turnover on downs7–0
PHIQ3 15:00521Punt7–0
DALQ3 11:29725Turnover on downs7–0
PHIQ3 8:1132Punt7–0
DALQ3 6:54865Field goal10–0
PHIQ3 1:581048Field goal10–3
DALQ4 13:0030Punt10–3
PHIQ4 12:02974Touchdown10–10
DALQ4 7:3835Punt10–10
PHIQ4 5:5035Punt10–10
DALQ4 4:383-2Punt10–10
PHIQ4 3:1634Punt10–10
DALQ4 2:2043Field goal13–10
PHIQ4 1:511154Field goal13–13
DALQ4 0:111-1End of half13–13
PHIOT430Turnover13–13
DALOT517Turnover13–13
PHIOT634Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randall Cunningham14/2210901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith261345.21
Chris Warren10484.80
Randall Cunningham9222.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight23410
Wane McGarity35190
Emmitt Smith11150
Chris Warren34140
Jackie Harris2360
David LaFleur0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb23/4122812
Brian Mitchell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darnell Autry19653.40
Donovan McNabb55811.60
Stanley Pritchett382.70
Amp Lee122.00
Cecil Martin221.00
Charles Johnson1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Autry34571
Cecil Martin66400
Stanley Pritchett55400
Charles Johnson34340
Chad Lewis35230
Brian Mitchell25190
Torrance Small18150
Na Brown0100
Amp Lee0100
Todd Pinkston0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.32