Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
40
Model margin
+4.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.003
- 41.5%Success rate40.3%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.8%Third-down rate41.3%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.35Points / drive1.62
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 14/22 | 109 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 26 | 134 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/41 | 228 | 1 | 2 |
| Brian Mitchell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Autry | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Amp Lee | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Autry | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Cecil Martin | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 1 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Amp Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.32