Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.073
- 45.4%Success rate39.6%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 44.1%Third-down rate37.5%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.29
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.030EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 12:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:27 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:05 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:24 | 9 | 46 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q2 13:03 | 15 | 94 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:33 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q2 3:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:50 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q2 2:43 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:13 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| DEN | Q3 10:04 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 20–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:06 | 5 | 61 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| DEN | Q3 5:24 | 9 | 76 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:00 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 23–20 |
| DEN | Q4 13:12 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 30–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:00 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 30–23 |
| DEN | Q4 4:45 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 30–23 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:53 | 9 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 30–23 |
| DEN | Q4 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 22/35 | 327 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 33 | 115 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 5 | 8 | 134 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 96 | 2 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Brooks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 21/42 | 293 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.19