Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:32 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 9:37 | 5 | 60 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:46 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q1 1:03 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 13:47 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| KC | Q2 7:40 | 4 | 37 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 6:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–21 |
| KC | Q2 5:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 4:38 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| KC | Q2 3:21 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 10–28 |
| LV | Q2 0:27 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–28 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 10–28 |
| KC | Q3 12:16 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–28 |
| LV | Q3 9:40 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| KC | Q3 4:49 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| LV | Q3 1:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–35 |
| KC | Q3 0:00 | 1 | 19 | Turnover | 17–35 |
| LV | Q4 14:52 | 9 | 41 | Missed field goal | 17–35 |
| KC | Q4 9:10 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–35 |
| LV | Q4 8:19 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 24–42 |
| KC | Q4 3:53 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 31–42 |
| LV | Q4 1:47 | 1 | 43 | Touchdown | 31–49 |
| KC | Q4 1:37 | 9 | 50 | End of half | 31–49 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 39/53 | 504 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 9 | 15 | 139 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 9 | 12 | 134 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 6 | 8 | 102 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 7 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.