2000 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

20·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.010
  • 44.7%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.184EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.076
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 46.0%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
  • 2.14Points / drive1.67
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.033

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
MINQ1 14:011063Field goal3–0
GBQ1 8:251486Field goal3–3
MINQ2 14:53979Touchdown10–3
GBQ2 10:03754Touchdown10–10
MINQ2 6:5121Turnover10–10
GBQ2 5:4940Punt10–10
MINQ2 4:58536Turnover10–10
GBQ2 2:08532Punt10–10
MINQ2 1:11857Field goal13–10
MINQ3 15:0079Turnover13–10
GBQ3 11:10521Field goal13–13
MINQ3 8:48873Touchdown20–13
GBQ3 4:0022Touchdown20–20
MINQ3 3:32421Punt20–20
GBQ3 0:24513Punt20–20
GBQ4 14:033-12Punt20–20
MINQ4 12:5430Punt20–20
GBQ4 12:2852Punt20–20
MINQ4 10:401037Punt20–20
GBQ4 4:15413Punt20–20
MINQ4 2:353-2Punt20–20
GBQ4 1:4033Punt20–20
MINQ4 0:52533Turnover20–20
GBOT782Touchdown20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper17/3427623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith241225.10
Daunte Culpepper4205.00
Jimmy Kleinsasser294.50
Moe Williams294.50
Randy Moss1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss6121300
Robert Smith22671
Cris Carter510591
Chris Walsh23110
Matt Hatchette1450
Andrew Jordan1240
John Davis0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre17/3623520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green23683.01
Bill Schroeder11212.00
Brett Favre122.00
De'Mond Parker1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman591181
Bill Schroeder47630
Ahman Green58341
Corey Bradford0200
Tyrone Davis0300
Donald Driver0100
Bubba Franks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

6.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.90