Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.010
- 44.7%Success rate40.2%
- +0.184EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.076
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 46.0%Third-down rate38.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 2.14Points / drive1.67
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 17/34 | 276 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 24 | 122 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 6 | 12 | 130 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 2 | 67 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 10 | 59 | 1 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| John Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/36 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 23 | 68 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 9 | 118 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90