Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SEA are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:18 | 6 | 55 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:08 | 7 | 33 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:26 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:37 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:56 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 12:57 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 10:32 | 4 | 33 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 8:34 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 4:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:59 | 6 | 30 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| SEA | Q3 9:11 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:52 | 8 | 44 | Touchdown | 12–14 |
| SEA | Q3 4:12 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 12–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:52 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 12–14 |
| SEA | Q3 1:12 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 12–14 |
| LAC | Q4 14:48 | 14 | 73 | Field goal | 15–14 |
| SEA | Q4 5:36 | 16 | 51 | Field goal | 15–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 11/19 | 85 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 21 | 55 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Derrick Mayes | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.