Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.008
- 42.2%Success rate42.1%
- +0.195EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- 41.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.53
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.092EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/36 | 262 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 21/27 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 10 | 11 | 180 | 1 |
| Andrew Glover | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.44