2000 · Week 10
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
40
Model margin
-0.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.193
- 39.8%Success rate37.5%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.225
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.1%
- 33.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.46Points / drive1.06
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:38 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:10 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:19 | 6 | 17 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:28 | 7 | 38 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 2:48 | 7 | 52 | — | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 12:32 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 10:54 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 8:36 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 5:45 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q2 4:59 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 14–0 |
| TB | Q2 2:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q2 1:37 | 9 | 25 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| TB | Q2 0:21 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| TB | Q3 7:05 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| ATL | Q3 0:45 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 17–7 |
| TB | Q4 13:08 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| ATL | Q4 7:59 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| TB | Q4 7:43 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 27–7 |
| ATL | Q4 4:27 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| TB | Q4 3:02 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| ATL | Q4 1:50 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| TB | Q4 0:03 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 27–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 11/25 | 110 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Joe Hamilton | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 9 | 47 | 2 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 26/43 | 218 | 2 | 2 |
| Chris Chandler | 4/7 | 29 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 6 | 7 | 65 | 2 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 6 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 9 | 14 | 48 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.87