2000 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -10
Total
40
Model margin
-3.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.126
- 41.1%Success rate39.0%
- +0.058EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.243
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- 39.0%Third-down rate36.7%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.30Points / drive1.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 67 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 10:38 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 10:38 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 9:41 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q1 7:28 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q1 3:18 | 9 | 71 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| WAS | Q2 14:27 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 9–10 |
| ARI | Q2 8:43 | 9 | 11 | Missed field goal | 9–10 |
| WAS | Q2 3:52 | 4 | 44 | Field goal | 12–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:52 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 12–10 |
| WAS | Q2 0:41 | 5 | 33 | Turnover | 12–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 12–16 |
| WAS | Q3 13:44 | 15 | 53 | Field goal | 15–16 |
| ARI | Q3 4:43 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 15–16 |
| WAS | Q3 0:47 | 7 | 52 | Missed field goal | 15–16 |
| ARI | Q4 11:36 | 3 | 41 | Turnover | 15–16 |
| WAS | Q4 10:06 | 10 | 38 | Missed field goal | 15–16 |
| ARI | Q4 5:01 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 15–16 |
| WAS | Q4 2:13 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 15–16 |
| ARI | Q4 0:58 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 15–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 20/39 | 276 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 30 | 124 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 6 | 8 | 102 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 10 | 11 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 12/19 | 146 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.06
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.81