Closing spread
MIN -12.5
Total
46
Model margin
+6.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play+0.102
- 39.0%Success rate44.7%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.6%
- 36.7%Third-down rate46.0%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.04Points / drive2.14
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:59 | 9 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:42 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 0:13 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:47 | 9 | 51 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 7:10 | 9 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 2:19 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 10:15 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIN | Q3 8:03 | 7 | 50 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 3:47 | 11 | 58 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| MIN | Q4 14:33 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q4 10:11 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 7–24 |
| MIN | Q4 8:04 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| ARI | Q4 3:45 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| MIN | Q4 3:30 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 2:22 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| MIN | Q4 1:57 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/28 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| David Boston | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 25/32 | 302 | 3 | 1 |
| Bubby Brister | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 117 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bubby Brister | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 11 | 12 | 119 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 7 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.21