Closing spread
DET -8.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.193EPA / play-0.143
- 37.5%Success rate36.6%
- -0.176EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.146
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- 29.3%Third-down rate31.8%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 1.06Points / drive1.23
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 14/34 | 126 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 25 | 119 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Danny Kanell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 12/27 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 25 | 71 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herman Moore | 5 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Alfred Pupunu | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02