2000 · Week 11

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Danny Kanell

10·13

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -8.5

Total

40

Model margin

+4.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapLions
  • -0.193EPA / play-0.143
  • 37.5%Success rate36.6%
  • -0.176EPA / dropback-0.141
  • -0.225EPA / rush-0.146
  • 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate31.8%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.23
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DET
DETQ1 15:00971Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 10:3030Punt0–7
DETQ1 9:24829Punt0–7
ATLQ1 5:5889Punt0–7
DETQ1 1:3751Punt0–7
ATLQ2 14:453-6Punt0–7
DETQ2 13:213-9Punt0–7
ATLQ2 12:01817Punt0–7
DETQ2 8:4436Turnover0–7
ATLQ2 7:25320Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 6:36425Punt7–7
ATLQ2 4:22630Punt7–7
DETQ2 1:3338Punt7–7
ATLQ2 0:34436End of half7–7
ATLQ3 15:001046Field goal10–7
DETQ3 10:2433Punt10–7
ATLQ3 8:40420Punt10–7
DETQ3 6:02726Punt10–7
ATLQ3 2:46513Punt10–7
DETQ3 0:3331Punt10–7
ATLQ4 14:34412Punt10–7
DETQ4 12:0436Punt10–7
ATLQ4 11:0534Punt10–7
DETQ4 9:29745Field goal10–10
ATLQ4 5:1431Punt10–10
DETQ4 3:5538Punt10–10
ATLQ4 2:2920Turnover10–10
DETQ4 2:1334Field goal10–13
ATLQ4 1:43516Turnover10–13
DETQ4 0:392-2End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Kanell14/3412602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Anderson251194.81
Danny Kanell100.00
Terance Mathis1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terance Mathis411430
Jamal Anderson55360
Tim Dwight25270
Shawn Jefferson38200
Jammi German0100
Brian Kozlowski0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch12/2712801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart25712.81
Johnnie Morton12727.00
Mario Bates451.30
Charlie Batch341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Herman Moore510760
Alfred Pupunu22260
Walter Rasby12170
Johnnie Morton16100
Larry Foster1250
Mario Bates0100
James Stewart23-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.60
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.02