2000 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

15·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -9

Total

42

Model margin

+3.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.010EPA / play-0.016
  • 40.2%Success rate39.8%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.46
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.114

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TB
GBQ1 15:00832Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:24858Punt0–0
GBQ1 4:25610Punt0–0
TBQ1 1:44870Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 12:3130Field goal3–7
TBQ2 11:18514Punt3–7
GBQ2 8:56659Missed field goal3–7
TBQ2 5:19662Touchdown3–14
GBQ2 1:53625Punt3–14
TBQ2 0:3000End of half3–14
TBQ3 15:00311Punt3–14
GBQ3 12:16948Field goal6–14
TBQ3 8:3820Turnover6–14
GBQ3 8:10525Field goal9–14
TBQ3 5:294-1Punt9–14
GBQ3 3:243-2Punt9–14
TBQ3 1:4730Punt9–14
GBQ3 0:07552Touchdown15–14
TBQ4 14:01737Field goal15–17
GBQ4 10:12318Turnover15–17
TBQ4 8:39410Field goal15–20
GBQ4 6:50626Punt15–20
TBQ4 4:36517Punt15–20
GBQ4 2:2949Turnover on downs15–20
TBQ4 1:513-5End of half15–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre14/2511700
Matt Hasselbeck9/189310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green16654.10
De'Mond Parker2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder49540
Bubba Franks36451
Antonio Freeman47360
Ahman Green79350
Charles Lee11160
Donald Driver26130
De'Mond Parker1160
Ryan Wetnight1150
Tyrone Davis0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King16/2716421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn14553.90
Shaun King6132.20
Keyshawn Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dave Moore33570
Keyshawn Johnson57511
Reidel Anthony12191
Jacquez Green37160
Warrick Dunn22130
Patrick Hape0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.23