2000 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -9
Total
42
Model margin
+3.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.016
- 40.2%Success rate39.8%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- 38.8%Third-down rate33.9%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.67Points / drive1.46
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.114
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/25 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 9/18 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 7 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 16/27 | 164 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.23