Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+2.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.086
- 41.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.123EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.115
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.42Points / drive1.90
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.025EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 22/40 | 276 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sylvester Morris | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 20/25 | 244 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12