Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+2.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.086
- 41.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.123EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.115
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.42Points / drive1.90
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.025EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:55 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:55 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 4:18 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:52 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:16 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:16 | 12 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 6:44 | 9 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 3:56 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:23 | 1 | 11 | End of half | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 54 | Missed field goal | 0–21 |
| SF | Q3 12:20 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 9:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SF | Q3 8:40 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 3:30 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SF | Q4 13:53 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 0–21 |
| KC | Q4 11:13 | 12 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SF | Q4 6:27 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–21 |
| KC | Q4 3:46 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 7–21 |
| SF | Q4 2:29 | 4 | 9 | End of half | 7–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 22/40 | 276 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sylvester Morris | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 20/25 | 244 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12