2000 · Week 11

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

17·7

Chargers

San Diego

QB Moses Moreno

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIA -5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

SD perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SD
MIAQ1 15:00367Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 13:1964Punt7–0
MIAQ1 9:58420Punt7–0
LACQ1 7:34425Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ1 5:371166Touchdown14–0
LACQ2 14:1638Punt14–0
MIAQ2 11:50737Punt14–0
LACQ2 8:32314Turnover14–0
MIAQ2 7:4336Punt14–0
LACQ2 5:22716Turnover14–0
MIAQ2 2:3847Turnover on downs14–0
LACQ2 1:053-12Punt14–0
MIAQ2 0:3934End of half14–0
LACQ3 15:00513Punt14–0
MIAQ3 13:013-1Punt14–0
LACQ3 11:05414Turnover14–0
MIAQ3 9:34716Field goal17–0
LACQ3 6:291365Touchdown17–7
MIAQ4 14:5599Punt17–7
LACQ4 9:41625Punt17–7
MIAQ4 8:2239Punt17–7
LACQ4 6:10513Punt17–7
MIAQ4 4:4155Punt17–7
LACQ4 2:421053Turnover17–7
MIAQ4 0:031-1End of half17–7

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler13/2016000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith27692.62
Thurman Thomas3175.70
Jay Fiedler382.70
Autry Denson551.00
O.J. McDuffie1-3-3.00
Leslie Shepherd2-12-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden13610
O.J. McDuffie34360
Leslie Shepherd22190
Tony Martin23150
Lamar Smith33120
Thurman Thomas11120
Autry Denson0200
Hunter Goodwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.27

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.