Closing spread
MIA -5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/20 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 27 | 69 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Thurman Thomas | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 2 | -12 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.