Closing spread
NE -7
Total
32
Model margin
-1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.217
- 38.3%Success rate31.8%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.234
- 5.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- 35.1%Third-down rate28.6%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.30Points / drive0.78
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:08 | 4 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 9:54 | 9 | 34 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 4:36 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CLE | Q1 1:06 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 12:57 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| CLE | Q2 9:20 | 9 | 51 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 4:09 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| CLE | Q2 2:39 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| NE | Q2 0:30 | 5 | 41 | End of half | 3–13 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NE | Q3 13:56 | 10 | 53 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| CLE | Q3 9:30 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NE | Q3 5:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–13 |
| CLE | Q3 3:18 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| NE | Q3 0:20 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| CLE | Q4 14:54 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| NE | Q4 12:24 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 3–19 |
| CLE | Q4 11:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–19 |
| NE | Q4 9:30 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 11–19 |
| CLE | Q4 5:48 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 11–19 |
| NE | Q4 3:49 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 11–19 |
| CLE | Q4 3:09 | 9 | 41 | End of half | 11–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 21/35 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Redmond | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 11 | 96 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 20/37 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Damon Dunn | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.30