Closing spread
NO -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.057
- 42.1%Success rate40.9%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.120
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
- 42.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
- 1.53Points / drive1.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 72 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:28 | 16 | 98 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:53 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 10:26 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 6–0 |
| NO | Q2 9:26 | 1 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 9:19 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 6:10 | 11 | 68 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 1:49 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 0:27 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q3 11:47 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NO | Q3 8:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q3 6:51 | 8 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 14–3 |
| NO | Q3 3:33 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–3 |
| CAR | Q3 3:33 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| NO | Q3 2:01 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| CAR | Q4 14:22 | 13 | 54 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| NO | Q4 8:44 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| CAR | Q4 3:23 | 6 | 47 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| NO | Q4 2:09 | 1 | 15 | End of half | 20–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 14/23 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jerald Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 24/42 | 295 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 5 | 10 | 99 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 7 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92