Closing spread
IND -6
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.123
- 39.6%Success rate45.8%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.249
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 37.5%Third-down rate46.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.29Points / drive2.04
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.101EPA / play allowed+0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 20/38 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 8 | 13 | 140 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/35 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 31 | 131 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 4 | 11 | 34 | 1 |
| E.G. Green | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.46