Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
50
Model margin
+4.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 14:00 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 11:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 9:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:18 | 10 | 90 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:06 | 10 | 21 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:25 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:31 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 7:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:26 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q2 2:55 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:13 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:46 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:15 | 7 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 75 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 7:25 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q3 5:20 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 5:20 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q3 3:32 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:03 | 6 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| DEN | Q4 11:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LV | Q4 9:36 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| DEN | Q4 6:30 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 4:11 | 11 | 91 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| DEN | Q4 1:06 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 25/37 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.