Closing spread
STL -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYG are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 11:40 | 3 | 22 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:38 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:33 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:01 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:22 | 4 | 22 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NYG | Q1 1:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NYG | Q2 14:01 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:42 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NYG | Q2 5:43 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| LA | Q2 4:46 | 5 | 48 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| NYG | Q2 2:41 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 28–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:36 | 6 | 36 | Missed field goal | 28–7 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| LA | Q3 13:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 28–14 |
| NYG | Q3 13:41 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 28–17 |
| LA | Q3 11:34 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| NYG | Q3 7:20 | 6 | 33 | Turnover | 31–17 |
| LA | Q3 4:03 | 4 | 59 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| NYG | Q3 2:24 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 38–17 |
| LA | Q4 14:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 38–17 |
| NYG | Q4 13:04 | 3 | -15 | Punt | 38–17 |
| LA | Q4 12:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 38–17 |
| NYG | Q4 10:42 | 8 | 92 | Touchdown | 38–24 |
| LA | Q4 8:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 38–24 |
| NYG | Q4 6:34 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 38–24 |
| LA | Q4 5:42 | 10 | 46 | End of half | 38–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/34 | 240 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 11 | 110 | 2 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.