Closing spread
STL -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. NYG are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/34 | 240 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 11 | 110 | 2 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.